ground- water, geo- statistics, environmental- engineering, earth- science

(Weather) Prediction

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I followed the weather prediction for the city of Stuttgart between June 3rd and June 11th a little closer. Amongst other sites, I checked the GFS ensembles at wetterzentrale for the city of Stuttgart at seven snapshots in time.

The charts show 20 GFS runs in different colours for temperature at 850hPa (top portion) and 6h-precipitation (bottom portion). In the images I flagged June 15th with a vertical orange line.

At the beginning there seems to be quite good agreement in both temperature and precipitation for the next three to four days.

The prediction from June 4th predicts a temperature decrease on June 10/11, together with significant precipitation. This temperature decrease is not anymore predicted on the 5th, but is predicted again on the 7th.

A significant drop in temperature happened on the 14th, together with a precipitation event, which was not predicted until the 10th.

This is only one example, analyzed by a non-meteorologist. But despite ensembles there is a lead-time of about three days. This also did not change when looking at other models.

Written by Claus

June 24th, 2013 at 2:21 pm

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